Randomness and Reason

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Contents

[edit] Randomness and Reason

[edit] Readings/bibliography

  • Aronson, J., and Steele, C. (2005), "Stereotypes and the Fragility of Academic Competence, Motivation, and Self-Concept," in Eliot, A.J. and Dweck, C.S. (Eds.), Handbook of Competence and Motivation, Guilford Press, London. PDF here.
  • Few, S., Show Me the Numbers: Designing Tables and Graphs to Enlighten. Buy it here.
  • Friedman, K.E. et al., "Body Image Partially Mediates the Relationship between Obesity and Psychological Distress," Obesity Research {\bf 10}:33-41 (2002). PDF here.
  • Gould, S.J., Glowworm piece
  • Gould, S.J. (1996), The Mismeasure of Man, Norton. Buy it here.
  • Jaynes, E.T., Probability Theory: The Logic of Science, Cambridge University Press.
    • Jaynes Chapter 1, here
    • Jaynes Chapter 2, here
    • Jaynes Chapter 3, here
    • Jaynes Chapter 4, here
  • Jaynes, E.T., "Where do we stand on maximum entropy?", here
  • Spiegel, M., and Lindstrom, D. (1999), Schaum's Easy Outline: Statistics, McGraw-Hill. Buy it here.
  • Tufte, E., Visual and Statistical Thinking: Displays of Evidence for Decision Making. Buy it here.
  • Tufte, E., Beautiful Evidence [1]
  • Wainer, H., "The Most Dangerous Equation," American Scientist May-June 2007. PDF here.


  • Anything on the reading list for Kerry Woods's Graphs and Maps class on visual displays of quantitative information.

[edit] Homework and solutions

For the assignment handed out on 4/28, an Excel illustration of R^2 for linear relationships is here.

For the assignment handed out on 4/28, an Excel data set with car specifications is here.

For the assignment handed out on 4/28, first generation major choices for the assignment handed out on 4/28 are here.

High school GPAs for the quick assignment handed out on 4/14 are here.

Logic problems and solutions [here], including extras beyond what I gave out originally.

Probabilistic reasoning problems and solutions [here]. Reid's solution for homework problem 5, OR rule from AND and NOT, here.

[edit] Conditional Probability and Updating Information

This example came up in conversation two weeks ago: 

 "Let's play a game of Russian roulette," begins one interview stunt
 that is going the rounds at Wall Street investment banks. "You are tied to
 your chair and can't get up. Here's a gun. Here's the barrel of the gun,
 six chambers, all empty. Now watch me as I put two bullets in the gun.
 See how I put them in two adjacent chambers? I close the barrel and
 spin it. I put the gun to your head and pull the trigger. Click. You're
 still alive. Lucky you! Now, before we discuss your resume, I'm going to
 pull the trigger one more time. Which would you prefer, that I spin the
 barrel first, or that I just pull the trigger?"

from William Poundstone's How Would You Move Mount Fuji?

What are the events? What information do you have? (and at what times do you obtain that information?) Can you "mathematize" this situation?

--Reid Ginoza 14:47, 23 March 2008 (EDT)

[edit] Topics to be Addressed

This list is in flux. So far, it's a brainstorming space for the professor. Feel free to add to the bottom. Please don't delete unless you are the professor.


  • Signal and Noise
  • Measures of central tendency and dispersion
  • Summarizing and Visualizing Data
  • Correlation, Causation, and Relative Risk
  • Latent Traits and Standardized Testing
  • Factor Analysis
  • Race and IQ
  • Significance Vs. Size
  • Elements of Probability Theory
  • Probabilistic Reasoning: Bayes's Theorem
  • Probability, Rationality, and Entropy
  • Stereotype Threat
  • The scatter plot
  • How to read a complicated chart. (The approach. \lq\lq Draw it again."; visualize the data as a spreadsheet)
  • Bernoulli processes
  • Markov processes
  • Model fitting
  • Multiple linear regression
  • Schleicher's expenditure scatter plot
  • The poker cheating scatter plot
  • The NY Times article from 12/4 about three factors in perfectionist questionnaires
  • My tape thickness measurement
  • Eileen's census data
  • Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, e.g. stock prices (--Reid)

[edit] Admissions Office data feeds

[edit] Second data feed, last week of Feb/first week in March

  • ACT, 2008-2009, males: file here, layout here

[edit] Three linked files, uploaded April 13 2008

  • Current inquiries and applications file here. I don't have a layout.
  • ACT, 2008-2009, males: file here, layout here
  • NRCCUA: file here. I can't read the layout file Heather sent. I also don't know why there are many thousands of names here.

Here's the NRCCUA layoet ~Sasha

The IDs that are shared among the files are in this spreadsheet.

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